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Statistical Excel 2016 ◉ 32 views

=FORECAST.ETS.STAT()

Returns a statistical value as a result of time series forecasting.

Applies To: Excel for Microsoft 365Excel for Microsoft 365 for MacExcel 2024Excel 2024 for MacExcel 2021Excel 2021 for MacExcel 2019Excel 2016
=FORECAST.ETS.STAT(values, timeline, statistic_type, [seasonality], [data_completion], [aggregation])
Hover argument names in the table for details.
Output typeNumber
Popularity5 / 100
VolatileNo
Dynamic ArrayNo
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◧ Arguments

ArgumentTypeRequiredDescription
values Range Required Values are the historical values, for which you want to forecast the next points.
timeline Range Required The independent array or range of numeric data. The dates in the timeline must have a consistent step between them and can't be zero. The timeline isn't required to be sorted, as FORECAST.ETS.STAT will sort it implicitly for calculations. If a constant step can't be identified in the provided timeline, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #NUM! error. If timeline contains duplicate values, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #VALUE! error. If the ranges of the timeline and values aren't of same size, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #N/A error.
statistic_type Number Required A numeric value between 1 and 8, indicating which statistic will be returned for the calculated forecast.
seasonality Date Optional A numeric value. The default value of 1 means Excel detects seasonality automatically for the forecast and uses positive, whole numbers for the length of the seasonal pattern. 0 indicates no seasonality, meaning the prediction will be linear. Positive whole numbers will indicate to the algorithm to use patterns of this length as the seasonality. For any other value, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #NUM! error. Maximum supported seasonality is 8,760 (number of hours in a year). Any seasonality above that number will result in the #NUM! error.
data Number Optional completion Optional. Although the timeline requires a constant step between data points, FORECAST.ETS.STAT supports up to 30% missing data, and will automatically adjust for it. 0 will indicate the algorithm to account for missing points as zeros. The default value of 1 will account for missing points by completing them to be the average of the neighboring points.
aggregation Number Optional Although the timeline requires a constant step between data points, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will aggregate multiple points which have the same time stamp. The aggregation parameter is a numeric value indicating which method will be used to aggregate several values with the same time stamp. The default value of 0 will use AVERAGE, while other options are SUM, COUNT, COUNTA, MIN, MAX, MEDIAN.

▣ Examples

Example 1 =FORECAST.ETS.STAT(B2:B37, A2:A37, 6)
Example 2 =FORECAST.ETS.STAT(B2:B37, A2:A37, 7)

✦ Tips

  • The function FORECAST.ETS.STAT is not available in Excel for the Web, iOS, or Android.

⚠ Common Errors

#NUM! If a constant step can't be identified in the provided timeline, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #NUM! error. For any other value, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #NUM! error. Any seasonality above that number will result in the #NUM! error.
Fix: گام ثابت خط زمانی را بررسی کنید و seasonality را بین ۰ تا ۸٬۷۶۰ وارد کنید.
#VALUE! If timeline contains duplicate values, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #VALUE! error.
Fix: مقادیر تکراری را از خط زمانی حذف کنید.
#N/A If the ranges of the timeline and values aren't of same size, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will return the #N/A error.
Fix: Make the two ranges the same size

⇄ Related Functions

=FORECAST.ETS() Calculates or predicts a future value based on existing (historical) values by using the AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm. The predicted value is a continuation of the historical values in the specified target date, which should be a continuation of the timeline. You can use this function to predict future sales, inventory requirements, or consumer trends. This function requires the timeline to be organized with a constant step between the different points. =FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT() Returns a confidence interval for the forecast value at the specified target date. =STEYX() Returns the standard error of the predicted y-value for each x in the regression. The standard error is a measure of the amount of error in the prediction of y for an individual x.

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